No Candidacy Has Been Announced

Shorter than two months ahead to the election day, it is still unsure who will run for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. With unreliability on incumbent president, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as the leader for elections of both Houses of the Diet, most of the party members can agree on replacement of the president. Although some possible candidates are preparing for running, they are still not successful in rallying supports in the party. There is no policy discussion expected by the people.

In the monthly poll of Nikkei Shimbun conducted in late July, 55 percent of responders hoped Kishida to continue his job by September, the month LDP election will be held. Inconvenient enough for Kishida, 25 percent wanted him to resign immediately, indicating eight out of ten expected Kishida to step down quite soon. Only 13 percent thought that he should stay as long as possible.

 

As Kishida’s popularity declined with his weak management of the slush fund scandal, a number of leaders in the LDP have been spotlighted by the news organizations as the possible candidates for the presidential election. However, none of them has formally stepped forward. It is supposed that they are strategically watching moves of other candidates to make the race easier.

 

Former Minister of Defense, Shigeru Ishiba, is the top runner in the polls, in terms of popularity. Taking distance from main stream of the LDP under leadership of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ishiba kept on criticizing political handlings of LDP leaders.

 

Although Ishiba was not punished in the slush fund scandal, he has been skeptical about the leadership of Kishida. He urged Kishida to exercise his leadership for political reform as soon as the scandal broke out last December. It is likely that Ishiba recognizes Kishida as a leader dependent on the power of former Abe group in the LDP.

 

Ishiba once told that he would consider his candidacy by mid-August. But he asked his supporters in Tottori for firm support in the presidential election, saying “I want to change Japan from Tottori.” It is highly possible that he will officially announce his candidacy in late August.

 

The LDP Secretary General, Toshimitsu Motegi, is a likely contender against Ishiba. Motegi has been indicating his candidacy, not hiding his ambitions for a prime minister. “I have something to do as a prime minister. I want to deliberate about the candidacy during this summer,” said Motegi in June, raising reform of transportation system and social security. He also sold his name as a tough negotiator against former U.S President Donald Trump.

 

Motegi has a major restriction to be a candidate. A Secretary General of the LDP is supposed to support the president for reelection. Former Secretary General, Nobuteru Ishihara, was criticized as Akechi Mitsuhide in Heisei, a historical figure in Japan who killed his boss Oda Nobunaga at Honno-ji Temple in sixteenth century, when he sought presidency trying to taking over the president Sadakazu Tanigaki in 2012. Motegi reiterates that he would never be an Akechi in Reiwa.

 

It would be the best situation for Motegi to run, if Kishida announces his stepping down. However, Kishida has not made up his mind about the election. As Motegi had some frictions with Kishida over policies, it is not easy for Motegi to stand as a successor of Kishida.

 

The Minister for Digital Transformation, Taro Kono, is ambitious for the president. Kono ran for the president in 2021, and lost behind Kishida. Although Kono asked his boss in the faction, Taro Aso, support for his candidacy in June, Aso did not show his firm endorsement for Kono. As a guardian for Kishida, Aso had to consider whether Kishida would run for the reelection or not.

 

The Minister for Economic Security, Sanae Takaichi, is also hoping to run as a candidate representing conservative power in the LDP. While she hopes to receive support from the members of former Abe faction, the faction collapsed as targeted in the slush fund scandal. The members of Abe faction have to independently decide who they are going to vote in the election.

 

Kishida has been accumulating meetings with party leaders. Not only having multiple meetings with Aso, Kishida also keeping contact with former members of his faction, Kochi-kai. Kishida looks like waiting for a situation that no one stands up as a candidate for fundamental reform of the LDP, and the party members reluctantly choose reelection of him.

 

As seen in the moves above, politics in the LDP is still based on activity of factions. Although the party declared dissolution of factions, a candidate for the presidential election needs to have at least twenty supporters to run. The campaign naturally becomes struggles between some groups of lawmakers.

 

Young lawmakers in the LDP submitted the party board a request to secure the longest campaign period for the election this fall to have as many discussions by the candidate as possible. However, if the next leader of LDP is elected as a result of obsolete power struggle of factions, it cannot appeal its refreshment to the public. In that case, who will be the leader, Kishida or someone else, does not matter, and the LDP will enter into a national election as an old political party.