Compromise in COP28

 Nearly 200 countries agreed on promoting transition of energy from fossil fuel to the renewables after two-week negotiation in COP28 climate summit held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Wednesday. Although the parties recognized the necessity to reach a consensus to cap the emission of greenhouse gasses, skepticisms between the developed and developing countries, or fossil fuel producers and renewable energy promoters, prevented them from achieving an ambitious goal. The COP summit in the world hottest year was ended up with compromises after sharp opposition among the parties.

The parties for the first time involved in the Global Stocktake, a framework which was established in COP 26 in 2021 to assess the commitment to Paris Agreement 2015 for implementing the goal of containing global warming within 2°C above the preindustrial level.

 

As an outcome of the first Global Stocktake, the parties recognized that limiting global warming requires reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

 

The biggest target was fossil fuels. The conference called on the parties to contribute to “transitioning away” from fossil fuels in energy systems, accelerating action in this critical decade. A chairman’s draft made a few days before the end of the conference included “phaseout” of fossil fuels.

 

Some oil-producing countries firmly opposed to it and the description was once weakened to “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels.” But some island countries and the Europeans opposed that expression and it finally settled in “transitioning away.” But the agreement limited the reduction of fossil fuels in energy systems. It is not clear how much the parties accelerate the actions in coming ten years. The countries depending on fossil fuels made the agreement obscure.

 

The agreement also upheld globally tripling renewable energy capacity by 2023. It included nuclear energy as low-emission technology for the first time in COP history. It may encourage the establishment or restarting of nuclear power plants in the countries including Japan. It has to be noted that nuclear energy has uncontrollable risks once the nuclear reactor had an accident.

 

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida gave a speech at the beginning of the conference, in which he announced that Japan would end new construction of domestic unabated coal power plants. That meant Japan would be increasing “abated” coal plants to secure a stable energy supply. There is a discussion in Japan to introduce a technology to burn coals mixed with ammonia, which will decrease the emission of carbon dioxide.

 

COP28 failed again in banning fossil fuels. Some countries including Japan focusing not on eliminating fossil fuels, but on “reducing” it. The government of Japan expects 19% of whole energy on coal and 18% on natural gas for the energy supply in 2030. Before aiming to net zero, fundamental reduction is needed to deal with global warming.