Halfway Political Leadership

Facing the difficulty of energy price hike caused by Russia’s aggression to Ukraine, it was not strange that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Middle East this early summer. Through the three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, Kishida sought stronger connection with the region not only in economic ties but for political partnership. However, those Arab nations were mainly interested in Japan’s technology or investment. Kishida’s geopolitical effort for including the countries called “the Global South” on the side of Western democracy is still halfway there.

In the meeting with Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Kishida emphasized the importance of cooperating together as strategic partners for regional stability. Saudi Arabia is on its process of socio-economic reform titled “Vision 2030,” the national plan started in 2016, aiming at moving the country away from its dependence on oil profits. Referring to a bilateral framework named “Japan-Saudi Vision 2030,” Kishida hoped further cooperation in the areas of advanced science and technology, medicine, healthcare and other areas. Reconfirming the establishment of a strategic dialogue at the level of foreign ministers, both leaders agreed on enhancing the relationship of both countries for the decarbonization through sharing technology for reforming Middle East into the hub of next-generation energies.

It was obvious that the visit was made for dealing with current energy problems in Japan. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022, the government of Japan increased the amount of subsidy for stabilizing gasoline price, which had originally been created for relieving the economy damaged by COVID-19. According to a report of Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Japan’s procurement of crude oil highly depends on Middle East, as much as 97% this May. Kishida did not forget expressing to Prince Mohammed his gratitude for the stable supply of crude oil from Saudi Arabia over the years. While Kishida insisted on the need of stability of international crude oil market, Muhammad bin Salman simply expressed his willingness to work for the benefit of both the oil-consuming and oil-producing countries.

What Saudi Arabia wanted to Japan was cooperation for energy shift from fossil fuel to clean energy. Based on a proposal from the side of Saudi Arabia, both leaders issued a joint statement on Light House Initiative for Clean Energy Cooperation, a bilateral framework which aimed at showcasing Saudi-Japan leadership in clean energy projects and sustainable advanced materials, supporting ongoing efforts of Saudi Arabia to become a hub for clean energy, mineral resources and supply chains for energy components.

For Japan, security in Asia-Pacific must be more crucial than economic development in Middle East. One major reason for strengthening the relationship with Middle East countries is not to let China increase its influence toward the region and control energy policy. Kishida introduced Prince Mohammed his renewed plan of Free and Open Indo-Pacific, which upholds principles of freedom, the rule of law, respect for diversity, inclusiveness and openness. While Kishida expressed his desire to continue working closely with Saudi Arabia in addressing various challenges in Indo-Pacific, Prince Mohammed generally expressed his pleasure to have an opportunity to cooperate with Japan “in various fields.” Although two leaders affirmed that they would never allow any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force, no accusation against Russia was expressed from the side of Saudi Arabia.

As the chair of the Group of Seven (G7) this year, Japan is responsible for promoting G7 policy condemning Russia. As long as looking into the briefing report of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is no sign of talking about the Ukraine issue. While Saudi Arabia shows a cooperative attitude toward Russia in keeping the oil price relatively high, Japan still cannot find any leverage to invite Saudi Arabia into the framework of economic sanctions against Russia. In 2018, G7 delivered the statement on the death of a journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the scandal in which Prince Mohammed has been suspected to have involved, expecting thorough investigation. Although G7 has been condemning the killing, Kishida doesn’t seem to have touched on the issue in the leaders’ meeting with Prince Mohammed.

Basic attitude of expecting Japan a cooperation in economic most was common in the countries Kishida visited this time. In the meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who will be hosting COP 28 later this year, Kishida stressed that the cooperation between Japan and UAE was not limited to energy but extended to various fields including space. Both leaders issued a joint statement for leading international efforts of tackling climate change, which recognizes the role of advanced technologies in accelerating decarbonization. In the meeting with Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Kishida stressed the importance of investment in natural gas. Thanking for the contribution of Japanese companies to Qatar, Emir Tamim expected further investment and technology transfer.

After the World War II, the Japanese had been improving its image in Middle East countries, working hard for their economic growth in the recovery process from the devastations of war including the suffering from atomic bombs dropped by United States. The turning points were the Gulf War in 1990-91 and September 11^th of 2001. Following US strategy toward Middle East, Japan shifted its diplomacy from strictly non-military principle to supporting or being involved in military operations. In the opinion poll in seven Middle East countries in 2021, 76% of the people acknowledged friendly relationships with Japan. That result surpassed United States (70%), but fell below ASEAN (93%) or India (91%). If it wants to exercise its leadership in Middle East, Japan has to listen carefully to the voices of the people there, which are reluctant to be involved in the conflicts among the Western nations.