Game of Chicken in Leading Coalition

The Liberal Democratic Party is suffering from unprecedented conflict against the long-time coalition partner, Komeito. Annoyed by LDP’s sober reaction over the interparty cooperation for next election of House of Representatives, Komeito announced that it would not support any LDP candidate in Tokyo districts, which could be causing to some defeats of LDP candidates. While the struggle is not supposed to escalate to the extent of dissolution of the coalition so far, some LDP lawmakers criticized Kometo with anger, urging Komeito to leave. It is clear that LDP led by Fumio Kishida has not been taking good care of its partner.

 

House of Representatives passed an amendment of Public Offices Election Act last November, which would increase ten electoral districts in urban area and decrease ten in rural regions. Regarding the change would be a good chance to raise as much candidates as possible, Komeito planned that it would raise eleven candidates, including one for Tokyo 29th district, in the next election. The party, suffering from decline of total votes in current elections, sought raising another candidate in Tokyo 28th district, which was one of the ten districts newly created.

 

Concerning its internal complaints, LDP refused that Komeito’s idea. In the traditional structure of election cooperation of both parties, LDP voters mandatorily need to vote for the candidate of Komeito and vice versa. There has been an argument among LDP lawmakers that why they have to support Komeito so much, while LDP loses mostly ten districts with the electoral reform. Komeito finally gave up LDP support in Tokyo 28th, and decided that the party would not support LDP candidates in Tokyo districts in next election. In an official agreement late June, LDP would promise to issue recommendation to all the district candidates of Komeito except Tokyo 29th. Komeito would issue recommendations to LDP candidates in any districts except Tokyo.

 

In the election in 2021, Komeito won 9 districts in all over Japan. Tokyo 12th was one of them, which was only one in Tokyo. The winner, Mitsunari Okamoto, later decided to move to Tokyo 29th in next election, the decision which was basically approved by LDP. Then, Komeito tried to get the second district in Tokyo 28th. The idea of two districts in Tokyo was too much for LDP to support.

 

Comparing actual seats in House of Representatives with the share of all the votes in 2021, the LDP’s benefit in the cooperation system is bigger than Komeito. LDP won 189 districts (65.4% of all 289), while Kometo did 9 (3.1%). LDP, however, earned only 34.6% of all the votes for proportional representation, while Komeito did 12.4%. It can be said that LDP earned a great number of seats with relatively a few votes, thanking to the interparty cooperation.

 

The decision of no support for LDP in Tokyo seemed to be led by a religious group, Souka Gakkai, the greatest political basis of Komeito. Asahi Shimbun reported a story that a vice president of SG has been involved in the negotiation with LDP in an aggressive manner. Even after facing reluctancy of LDP local leaders to support Komeito candidates in Aichi 16th and Saitama 14th, the vice president independently announced that he would raise candidates in both districts. As long as election strategy is actually controlled by SG board members, the leaders of Komeito are acting as puppets.

 

Current political surge of the Innovation Party, or Ishin-no-kai, is in the background of Komeito’s unusual anxiety. Ishin increased the seats in regional congresses in the local elections in April, as it made a historical victory over LDP in a supplementary election of House of Representatives in Wakayama. Although it had been refraining from confrontation with Komeito in six districts Osaka or Hyogo, Ishin announced that it would raise its own candidates against Komeito’s incumbents for next election.

 

Irritation of Komeito is not only caused by uncooperative attitude of LDP. Kishida’s current positiveness toward military developments undermine Komeito’s traditional political principle as “the party of peace.” Moreover, consecutive failures in the process of replacing health insurance card with My Number Card harm the support of SG members, who are serious about welfare policies. Komeito can still not find a momentum of regaining power.

 

Since the joining of the coalition with LDP, with catalyst of Liberal Party, in 1999, Komeito has overcome many hardships of political differences from conservative LDP. Maintenance of the leading coalition actually worked for growth of the small party. The existence of Komeito has also been working for LDP in making its hawkish image softer. Considering Komeito’s possession of ten to twenty thousands of votes in every district of House of Representatives, there are a number of lawmakers who would not be reelected without Komeito’s support. Whether or not next election in Tokyo is separated depends on which side will compromise. Twenty-four years coalition, however, looks like exhausted with endless quibbles.

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