Under the Thumb of Triple-A

As far as looking into the faces of new members of the administration, Japanese politics has not gotten rid of obsolete power game. The Diet of Japan elected Fumio Kishida, former Minister of Foreign Affairs in Shinzo Abe administration, to the 100th Prime Minister. PM Kishida immediately formed his Cabinet with balanced choice, from the ranked lawmakers to the novice, reflecting preference of powerful figures called Triple-A: Shinzo Abe, Taro Aso and Akira Amari. Although new administration embarks on, domestic or foreign policy of Japan would basically not change so much.

    Soon after elected to President of Liberal Democratic Party last Wednesday, Kishida unofficially met with Amari to consult on choice of administrative staffs. The first choice was Amari himself to Secretary General of LDP, who would control campaign strategy for coming general election and be dealing with the opposition parties in the Diet. However, Amari embraces a money scandal five years ago, which the people still remember as an evidence of inappropriate relationship between business and lawmaker. Kishida must continuously be facing demand for detailed explanation.

    Ending extra-long term of Minister of Finance, Aso was chosen to Vice-President of LDP, which post would have less influential power on policies. Aso group in LDP has the same origin to Kishida group. Although Kishida might have expected cooperative relationship with Aso in terms of economic policy, the meaning of Aso's pick was to stabilize support of leading party. The same can be said to the choice of Sanae Takaichi, to whom Abe gave strong support in LDP presidential election, for Chair of Policy Research Council.

    Compared to the strength of LDP leaders, new cabinet will be a stage of competition for new young leaders. Beside reappointment of Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, most Ministers are freshmen. It is strange that all three posts for dealing with COVID-19 policy, Ministers of Health, Labor and Welfare, Economic Revitalization, and Vaccination, were occupied with lawmakers without ministerial experience, considering resignation of Abe and Suga caused by mishandling of the infectious disease.

    An important viewpoint is whether Kishida's policy would be affected by Abe. While Kishida is upholding pro-America stance in basic concept of prosperous Indo-Pacific region facing China, Takaichi insists on more hawkish policies including deploying new missile system in Japan. Going back to four islands solution on Northern Territory issue may raise diplomatic tension with Russia. Redirection of economic policy from trickle down to bottom up is still not sure to be successful.

    The opposite parties criticize the formation of new administration as an aspect of unchangeable character of LDP; lack of transparency in political money or hidden control of old bosses. However, the opposites can still not show their ability to replace LDP-Komeito coalition. Kishida reportedly decided that next general election of House of Representatives would be held on October 31th. It will be a competition of which side will represent public demands for better life.