Four Candidates for Backup Capital

Sanae Takaichi Cabinet made a decision on conditions for designating a backup capital on October 27th, which can substitute the function of Tokyo as the capital of Japan in a great disaster. The conditions include certain size of population and economic productivity, inviting skepticisms on relationship with natural disaster. According to the conditions, Sapporo in Hokkaido, Nagoya in Aichi, Osaka in Osaka and Fukuoka in Fukuoka became the candidates for the backup capital of Japan. 

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Innovation Party (JIP) agreed in October 2025 that they would pass the bill for backup capital in 2026 ordinary session of the Diet. The bill passed the Diet with strong push of Prime Minister Takaichi who was honest to implement the agreement with JIP.

 

The law promotes measures to maintain function of the state of Japan in a great disaster. But it included another project that would encourage economic growth with decentralization through building multiple economic zones. In addition to disaster management, the government included economic growth in the purposes of the legislation.

 

The governemnt set four conditions for prefectures and cities to be the backup capital, which can be an alternative as the capital in the case of a great earthquake right underground of Tokyo or a major eruption of Mt. Fuji. One, the region needs to be unlikely to suffer from the disaster simultaneously. Two, it needs to have 14 branches or more of national government, The national government has 28 kinds of local branches. The government requires a half or more of those kinds of branches.

 

Thirdly, the prefecture needs to have a city with 1.5 million of population, which occupies 1.2 percent of whole population in Japan. Why 1.5 million? It was explained that 2 million was too much and 1 million was too little. The city has to have special administrative districts like 23 districts in Tokyo or agreement with the prefectural government for cooperation in emergency. In terms of this requirement, Osaka is the top runner, because it has been promoting regional reform to have its special districts.

 

Lastly, the prefecture needs to have 2.1 percent or more of economic productivity to Japan’s GDP. It means annual 14 trillion yen of production. Japan has 47 prefectures. The average of productivity in one prefecture can be calculated by 100 divided by 47, which is equivalent to 2.1 percent. Yes, the condition requires that the prefecture holding a backup capital needs to have average productivity. But the government has not given an pursuasive reason why an alternative prefecture to Tokyo in a disaster needs 2.1 percent of economic productivity.

 

Once a city and a prefecture are designated as a backup capital, they can receive support from the national government. The measures can include taxation or deregulation to encourage private investment or building infrastructure for the region. However, it is still unclear why a backup capital needs certain size of population or economic productivity. There is an argument that a backup capital should not be the place with dense population but a spacy region in the case of major disaster. The relationship between disaster management and economic growth needs to be discussed in the headquarters of the government which was established in the end of October.

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