Ishiba Achieved a Majority for the Budget Bill

The House of Representatives passed FY 2025 budget bill with approval of the Liberal Democratic Party (DPJ), Komeito and Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin-no Kai). Although it had not determined its attitude toward the budget bill, Ishin abruptly decided to support for the revised bill submitted by the leading coalition. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the head of his minority government, finally achieved a simple majority in the Lower House, which he deadly wanted to achieve.

Although Ishin had reached a deal with the LDP and Komeito to include financial support for high school tuition in the budget bill, the party was still skeptical for approving the bill, given a relatively small revision on raising threshold for imposing income tax from 1.03 million yen to 1.6 million yen. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) refused that revision in the policy talk with the LDP and Komeito.

 

Anxious about consistently low public approval rate since the Lower House election last October, Ishin has been seeking some political gains to appeal to the public. Raising support for high school tuition became Ishin’s important achievement for next Upper House election in July. However, Ishin’s approach toward the leading coalition causes division in the opposition parties between pro-LDP Ishin and others, including the DPP, distancing themselves from the leading coalition.

 

The budget bill was sent from the Lower House to Upper House on March 4, two days after the targeted deadline on March 2 for automatic approval in the Upper House. Article 60 of the Constitution of Japan provides that a Lower House decision on a budget will automatically become the decision of the Diet, if the Upper House fails to act within 30 days of receiving the bill.

 

If the FY 2025 budget bill had passed the Lower House by March 2, then it could have automatically passed the Diet before the new 2025 fiscal year begins on April 1. With delay of two days, the LDP is planning to accelerate the discussion of the budget bill in the Upper House to enable it to vote by the end of March. Fortunately for the LDP, the LDP-Komeito coalition constitutes a majority in the Upper House. Ishin is likely to cooperate with the LDP to accelerate the discussion in the Upper House.

 

One of the reasons of delay in passing the budget bill in the Lower House was revived argument over LDP’s slush fund scandal. In the hearing of Committee on Budget on February 27th, former accounting manager of Abe faction, Jun-ichiro Matsumoto, revealed that, after the fund had been scrapped in March 2022, the faction revived it at the suggestion of a senior member in August.

 

The opposition parties require further hearings from four leaders who were in the August meeting in which the faction decided to revive the kickback fund. While the budget bill is discussed in the Upper House, the parties will keep on negotiating over the scandal in the Lower House.

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