Impact of Biden’s Standing Down

With difficulty of foreseeing the result, confusion in the presidential election of the United States affects politics in Japan. While attempting Donald Trump’s life caused early presumption of his winning, retiring of Joe Biden from the race and possible bid of Kamara Harris proved unpredictability of US presidential election. Fumio Kishida administration has no choice but wait and see what is going to happen next.

“I recognize it as a way for making the best political decision,” said Kishida to the press on Biden’s announcement of stepping aside from the presidential race. But he could not say about his recognition on what is going on. “Needless to say, Japan-US alliance is the basis of diplomacy and security of our country. I will closely watch what is going to happen,” said Kishida.

 

Ministry for Foreign Affairs and other governmental offices have been closely watching the race and preparing for next possible US president, either Biden or Trump. Although one of those two choices was dropped, they did not have any alternative measure to deal with it. “It is important for us to coordinate policies with US government, regardless result of the presidential election.

 

Recognizing diplomacy and security are lifeline for his administration, Kishida has been taking care of relationship with the US. In the meeting with Biden in May 2022, Kishida promised fundamental reinforcement of Japan’s security capability and accumulation of defense budget. He implemented it in December 2022 with three security documents -- National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program – and raised 43 trillion yen of defense budget between 2023 and 2027.

 

Current consumer’s price hike and unpopularity of Kishida administration caused by the slush fund scandal, there is an argument in the Liberal Democratic Party that the defense budget plan should be reconsidered. It is reported that Biden administration is suddenly entered a lame duck phase. Kishida has to watch the US presidential race before his visit to the US in September for the General Assembly of the United Nations or possible trilateral meeting with Biden and the President of Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol.

 

It is not only about policy. Biden’s decision of standing down may affect Kishida’s fortune. Some members of the LDP began to talk about Kishida’s stepping down. The weekend poll of Asahi Shimbun indicated that 74% of the people did not want Kishida to stay as the prime minister, while only 18% wanted. “Kishida also should step down in a decisive way,” said a lawmaker with the LDP.

Reflecting uneasiness of investors, Nikkei 225 index showed steep down on the next day of Biden’s announcement, marking under 40 thousand yen for the first time in these three weeks. Stock of semiconductor and defense-related industry was sold. Economic impact of US presidential election cannot be ignored.

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