Difficulty in By-elections

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is making slow progress in building campaign strategy for three by-elections of House of Representatives scheduled in late April. The party has not decided who will run for the election in two districts out of three, suffering from public criticisms against the slush fund scandal. There is a speculation that some in the party will start argument of replacing Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, if LDP loses in all those three by-elections.

The by-elections are held twice in a year for supplementing seats in the Diet, which became vacant with resignation or death of the lawmaker representing the district. There will be by-elections in three districts, Nagasaki 3rd, Tokyo 15th and Shimane 1st. They will officially be announced on April 16 and voted on April 28th.

 

The by-election in Nagasaki 3rd will be held for supplementing the seat of Yaichi Tanigawa, who resigned as a lawmaker in January after he was indicted with charge of failing in reporting ¥43 million of political fund received from Abe faction as the kickback for the sales of faction party tickets.

 

LDP has not determined the candidate for the district. While the local branch is ready for the campaign, LDP headquarters in Tokyo has not decided to raise a candidate for the election in which the party will face hard criticisms against the slush fund scandal. Constitutional Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party has nominated their candidates.

 

No LDP candidate has also been named in Tokyo 15th, where a former LDP lawmaker was arrested and found guilty by the district court with charge of bribe in a local election. The local branch of LDP started public recruitment of the candidate for the by-election, but it has found no specific person fitting for the position.

 

The by-election in Shimane 1st will be held for fulfilling the vacant seat of late Speaker of House of Representatives, Hiroyuki Hosoda. Hosoda was the head of Abe faction between 2014 and 2021, which played a central role in the slush fund scandal. Hosoda was also suspected as having close relationship with former Unification Church, which coercive donation imposing on its followers was spotlighted after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

 

Although LDP has already raised a candidate for Shimane 1st, the party receives criticisms from the local public on the scandals. While the district is known as highly conservative, the LDP candidate does not have large advantage in the research of LDP. The opposition parties are launching a unified campaign for a candidate of CDP. 

 

It is highly unusual for a ruling party not to raise a candidate for district election of House of Representatives. No campaign immediately means a defeat of LDP. It is likely for LDP members to accuse Kishida, if the by-elections are resulted in apparent defeat. No winning in three districts may cause politics inside LDP for replacing the prime minister, who are not reliable for the leader of next general election.

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