Hoping Compromise to Work

The leader seems to have taken appeasement policy to settle a long dispute over territory. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in his interview to a local newspaper, admitted that Japan's change of attitude from reclaiming four islands, one of which is actually archipelago, to dividing them into two. He explained his decision as viable and realistic, putting aside a fact that Russia have shown no interest in it and kept its standpoint of not returning even two islands. It is still unclear whether current Japanese administration will follow that diplomatic outcome.

    In the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Singapore in 2018, Abe proposed to accelerate the negotiation over the territory based on Joint Declaration of Japan and Soviet Union 1956, which determined transferring Habomai Islands and island of Shikotan after the conclusion of peace treaty. In his interview to Hokkaido Shimbun, Abe told that he thought it was "a big chance" and demerit of losing that momentum was bigger.

    Why did he thought it was a big chance? It was about Presidents of United States. After Russian advance to Ukraine in 2014, Obama administration had been negative on seeking development in Japan-Russia political dialogue. But, Abe believed that President Trump was understanding about bilateral negotiation between Japan and Russia. "Mr. Trump took a stance that he would agree anything Shinzo promotes," said Abe.

    However, his attitude to the negotiation showed some naïve aspects. While Japan would no longer demand islands of Etorofu and Kunashiri, Abe believed that accumulating fait accompli would be making a momentum. "A fact that Japanese people are taking economic activity and living there will work as footholds," said Abe, indicating future returning of those two islands. It is unrealistic that a territory once officially concluded to belong to one is transferred to another through economic cooperation.

    Abe highly depended on personal relationship with Putin. Considering expiration of his term as prime minister two years later, Abe tried to conclude the territorial dispute early. "Because I established a relationship of deep talk with Mr. Putin, I realized that it was a great chance," told him. While Abe convinced in Putin's domestic power, public opinion against giving territory over Japan in Russia grew after Singapore meeting. Abe realized Putin's significant retreat from positive stance at a meeting two months later.

    Although Abe hoped current Kishida administration to succeed his two-island solution, predicting possible slowdown of the negotiation otherwise, it is hard for the prime minister to take a diplomatic policy fundamentally based on personal relationship with former leader. Abe tried to accelerate the negotiation in his own timeline, was overconfident about his personal relationship with Putin and Trump and is still insistent on his achievement. It can be a great burden for Japan's diplomacy in the future.

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