Successor’s Failure

It is not very rare in Japanese politics that an administration succeeding powerful leadership lives quite short. Though the reason is still not clear, the successors seem to bear heavy burden accumulated in the previous administration. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s announcement of resignation as Prime Minister reflected political debt from his predecessor Shinzo Abe, who maintained his cabinet for over seven years.

While Suga emphasized his intention to devote his power before he leaves not to election strategy, but to management for containment of COVID-19 infection, it was obvious that he was too desperate in maintaining his cabinet with recent precipitation of supporting rate. Facing growing anxiety in Liberal Democratic Party on his political mishandlings, which may cause negative impact of on next general election of House of Representatives this fall, Suga badly tried to renew the members of LDP senior leaders for his survival.

Abe’s denial of Suga’s idea of having the general election before LDP presidential election, which might pave the way for maintenance of Suga administration, could have given crucial damage. Suga could not win the presidential election without Abe’s support anyway. After consultation with a few colleagues, Suga announced not to run for the president, meaning stepping down as the premier.

Suga succeeded from Abe not only political power inside LDP, but negative reputation over scandals. The opposite parties demanded Suga further investigation on scandals of Moritomo, Kake and Cherry Blossom Party, in which Suga had involved as Chief Cabinet Secretary of Abe cabinet. After resignation of a member of House of Councillors from Hiroshima district with money scandal over previous election, LDP lost that seat in the election for filling the vacancy, losing Suga’s credibility as a party leader.

As long as Suga kept legacy of previous administration, Abe could back Suga up as long as possible. However, decline of popularity of Suga administration must have made Abe worried about his influential power inside LDP. It would be better for Abe to have a new leader who can solve the problems originated with his administration.

Abe actually succeeded administration from Jun-ichiro Koizumi, who maintained high popularity during his five and a half years leadership. But, the first Abe administration lasted less than a year. Cabinet of Noboru Takeshita who succeeded Yasuhiro Nakasone, or Takeo Miki succeeding Kakuei Tanaka also short-lived.

“Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely,” told Lord Acton. Those predecessors enjoyed strong political power that looked as if absolute. The successors suffered from inherited corruption or political deficit. But the people often expect them to exercise powerful leadership. It is likely that Suga could not withstand the pressure from previous administration, in addition to complicated and difficult management over historical events related to the infectious disease.