J Update

The Ministry of Defense released 2025 version of defense   white paper  on July 15. The paper expressed serious concern on China’s obscure development of military capability, which may pose insecurity to Asia-Pacific region. The report emphasizes necessity for enhancement of defense capability of Japan and security cooperation with its allies and like-minded countries in Asia.   The white paper analyzes that China has been rapidly enhancing its military capability, in both terms of quality and quantity, for these thirty years. It was mainly about nuclear and missile capability in air or maritime theater, endorsed by consecutive financial support lacking transparency. “It accelerates attempts for unilateral change of status quo by force or coercion in East and South China Sea, including violation of Japan’s territory around Senkaku Islands,” describes the white paper.   The paper noted  violation  of Japan’s territorial air in Danjo Islands, Nagasaki, in Aug...

Shigeru Ishiba administration   established   a new organization which deal with issues related to foreigners in Japan in the Cabinet Secretariat on July 15 th . The organization oversees immigration, application of social insurance for foreigners or controlling real property trade by foreigners. It is likely that the administration had to manage this issue, because treatment of foreigners in Japan emerged as one of the main issues in the Upper House election.   In the election campaign, a new populist party, Sanseito, upholds policies for stricter regulation against foreigners in Japan, arguing that the government has excessively accepted foreign workers, they do not appropriately pay for social insurance, they commit crimes, or they are buying real properties located in places with security importance. Major parties, namely the Liberal Democratic Party, are threatened by Sanseito with significant surge in approval rate in polls.   The new organization was named “Of...

As Upper House election campaigns reach an end, it gets obvious that ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to reduce seats. According to the polls of news organizations, the leading coalition by the LDP and Komeito would not maintain a majority in the Upper House. If the election results in that miserable defeat for the LDP, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will be precipitated in a serious jeopardy. In the  poll  of  Asahi Shimbun  conducted on July 13 th  and 14 th , the LDP will likely to reduce its seats from 52 before the election to 34. Komeito may also decline from 14 to 9. The LDP and Komeito need 50 seats in the election to maintain their majority in the Upper House, in addition to their 75 seats without election this year. If they cannot reach the line of 50, they lose majority in both Houses of the Diet.   The biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), is expected to gain 27 seats as a sum of prefectural...

Ministry of Defense (MOD)   announced  that its aircraft was closely approached by a bomber of Chinese Force in the air above the high sea in the East China Sea for twice in July. Japan expressed its concern on possible collision through diplomatic channel and requested measures not to repeat that kind of case. It was the second opportunity that Chinese aircraft closely approaches Japanese aircraft within about a month. Japan is analyzing China’s intention of reiterating military actions toward Japan.   According to the announcement of MOD, an intelligence-gathering aircraft affiliated to Air Self-defense Force, YS-11EB, was approached by a Chinese fighter jet, JH-7, as close as horizontal 30 meters and vertical 60 meters for 15 minutes between 10:50 and 11:05 in the morning of July 9 th . A Chinese JH-7 also approached Japanese YS-11EB for as close as horizontal 60 meters and vertical 30 meters for 10 minutes between 10:00 and 10:10 in the morning of July 10 th .   ...

China   notified  Japan that it had completed its internal procedures to activate an agreement on quarantine into force signed by both governments in 2019. The agreement is the precondition of resuming import of Japanese beef, which had been blocked since 2001. Receiving pressure from the United States through tariff policy, China is estimated that it strategically approaches Japan as a major trade partner.   China halted import of Japanese beef in 2001 when a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was found in Japan. As Japan has been urging China to resume import of Japanese beef, both governments reached  an agreement  on cooperation in animal health and quarantine in 2019, which would enhance cooperation in transboundary animal epizootic disease control. The agreement  took effect  in China on July 11 th , 2025, and both governments will start consultations toward early resumption of Japanese beef imports.   In the  meeting  ...

The Cabinet Office released on July 7 th   the Indexes of Business Conditions   of May 2025.  The coincident index (CI), which indicates actual condition of economy, marked 0.1 point of decline from the previous month. The evaluation of business condition was “worsening,” for the first time since July 2020 when COVID-19 damaged whole economy. The government of Japan did not determine whether the drop was caused by tariff policy of Trump administration of the United States.   Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office releases monthly index of business condition in Japan to grab the situation of Japanese economy by analyzing economic indexes such as production of goods or employment. The basic assessment is made through the CI which describes contemporary situation of current business activities.   Definition of “worsening” is decline for three consecutive months in average of the DI in latest three months. In the case of May 2025, the DI showed...

In the campaign for the Upper House election, one unusual topic is discussed among the parties. That is governmental policies for foreigners in Japan. One small uprising party advocates eccentric policies to introduce stricter regulation against foreign residents in Japan. While some conservative parties uphold regulations against foreigners, the liberal powers dismiss those movements as exclusive. It seems to have common ground with the United States where policy against immigrants is spotlighted.   The policy on foreigners in Japan has been discussed as the matter of accepting workers from foreign countries to cover labor shortage in Japan. Former Shinzo Abe administration introduced new system of foreigners’ status for skilled workers in 2019. In this Upper House election, the discussion is more focused on whether life of the Japanese are threatened by increasing foreigners.   A Peruvian, who had converted his driver’s license issued by his home country to Japanese one, dro...

A lawmaker with the Liberal Democratic Party made a gaffe which may affect the campaign for the Upper House election. Yosuke Tsuruho   said   that occurrence of a great earth quake in Noto could be lucky in his speech for an LDP candidate in Wakayama district on July 8 th . Accusations toward Tsuruho arose not only from the opposition parties but the ruling parties. Tsuruho was elected a member of the Upper House in Wakayama district for the first time in 1998 and currently in his fifth term. He is the Chairman of the Committee on Budget in the House. Since he still has three years for his current term, he does not have his own election campaign in this Upper House election. He was makng a speech for an LDP candidate in Wakayama district on July 8 th .   In the  speech , Tsuruho was appealing necessity of reforming residential registration system in local cities, a policy which he has been involved in as a lawmaker. “How we can maintain well-balanced development of o...

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that the U.S. would extend the limit to impose “reciprocal tariffs” from July 9 th   to August 1 st . Trump sent letters to fourteen countries to notice tariff rate for each country. Japan was informed that 25 percent would be added on its goods. As Trump indicated a possibility that the rate would be changed based on coming negotiation, Shigeru Ishiba administration is going to accelerate bilateral negotiation with the U.S.   In  an executive order  issued on July 7 th , Trump extended suspension of reciprocal tariff rates, “based on additional information and recommendations from various senior officials, including information on the status of discussions with trade partners.” The order also noted that the separate 90-day tariff suspension on China issued on May 12 th  will remain in effect.   At the same time, Trump noticed the leaders of fourteen countries with letters that the U.S. would impos...

As it was the top issue in the last Lower House election last year, regulation of political donation is one of the main issues in the Upper House election on July 20 th . The slush fund scandal in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) revealed false management of political fund. The opposition parties demand stricter regulation on it. It is possible that reform of political fund has crucial impact on the election again. The slush fund scandal in the LDP, which was revealed by a charge of a professor, gave a fatal damage on the party which had heavily been relied on secret funds raised through fundraising parties. As election campaigns were eventually been operated through internet, the scandal indicated that the LDP had been approaching voters by selling party tickets. The buyers were expecting some returns from the party which controlled national politics. That was old type of politics, on which ordinary voters were embracing fundamental skepticism.   The LDP tried to fix the problem...

Major newspapers conducted polls at the early stage of the Upper House election that will be voted on July 20 th . They showed a tendency that the ruling coalition by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito would reduce their seats in the House, while the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) would surge. It is unpredictable whether the leading coalition can maintain their simple majority in the House. The election will be held for 125 seats, including 1 seat of by-election in Tokyo district, out of all 248 seats in the House. The leading coalition needs to secure 50 seats, adding to 75 seats without election this year, to maintain a simple majority in the House. All the polls indicated that the coalition is standing at the edge of losing majority with possibility of growth of the opposition powers.   Yomiuri Shimbun  anticipates  that the LDP may reduce its seats from 52 to 40.  Asahi Shimbun  and...

Shigeru Ishiba Cabinet fixed its   basic concept  for encouraging local community, which was titled “Regional Revitalization 2.0.” Given a tendency of serious decline of new birth rate in Japan, Ishiba Cabinet encourages decentralization to promote demographic balance between big cities and local regions. The Cabinet focuses on increasing population of local communities, not based on residents but on flow of the people.   Ishiba was in charge of this issue, Regional Revitalization 1.0, as a Minister of Shinzo Abe Cabinet in 2014. As a lawmaker elected from a local district in Tottori, Ishiba made efforts to improve towns, people and jobs, which included new legislation for moving some office of national government to regions or for appropriating national budget for benefits to the local governments. However, the measures did not lead Japan to a trend of decentralization.   The basic concept found the greatest reason for centralization to Tokyo to be moves of young ag...

China   announced  that it would resume its import of seafood products from some parts of Japan, ending its complete ban on them since August 2023, when Japan started discharging “processed water” from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the Pacific Ocean. It is estimated that China needs to rebuild economic ties with Japan in the time when it exacerbated relationship with the Unite States over tariffs. After the severe accident in the Fukushima plant in 2011, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), consulting with the government of Japan, has been accumulated used water after cooling crippled reactors in the site. Although TEPCO could not completely remove radioactive tritium, TEPCO and Japanese government decided to release the water against fundamental concern of neighbor countries.   China as well as the Republic of Korea expressed strongest concern on Japan’s decision among the nations around Japan. Immediately after the discharging water, China laid a complete ...

Election of one of two Houses of the Diet is always about yes or no to political handlings of incumbent prime minister. In the Upper House election, the opposition parties cast skepticisms on domestic and foreign policies of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, while the leading coalition defends them. As the United States President, Donald Trump, put Japan under pressure for his tariff policy, the parties concern handling of U.S.-Japan relationship. Political reform is also the major topic in domestic politics.   Just few days before official announcement of the Upper House election, Trump expressed his frustration with bilateral negotiation between U.S. and Japan on tariffs. “Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story: You’re going to pay a 25 percent on your cars,”  said  Trump. He is also complained about small amount of Japan’s import of American rice, in spite of rice shortage in the market.   In the  debate  of Japan National Press Club, the leader of Constitutional...

The Upper House election was officially called on July 3 rd . The parties started their election campaign toward the voting day of July 20 th . As the consequence of targeted inflation policy by former administrations led by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, price inflation is the greatest concern for the voters now. Each party focuses on economic policy to appeal to the voters.   Several opposition parties uphold reduction or elimination of consumption tax rate to support families suffering from price inflation. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) embraces 0 percent of consumption tax on foods as the top agenda among their campaign policies. The leader of CDPJ, Yoshihiko Noda, insists that the party can achieve the policy without issuing new Japanese government bond.   In the  debate  by party leaders at Japan National Press Club on July 2 nd , Prime Minister Ishiba (the president of LDP) asked Noda about financial resource for the consumptio...

Central Disaster Management Council of the government of Japan revised its   basic plan  of preparing for Nankai Trough megaquake, which is highly likely to occur within next 30 years. The plan demands the government to take measures to reduce victims of the earthquake by 80 percent and broken houses by 50 percent within next 10 years. The government added 16 cities in Japan to which it would exercise intensive measures to reduce possible damages. The government estimated 332 thousand victims and 2.5 million destructions of houses by Nankai Trough megaquake, which would cause a huge tsunami on the coast of southwest Japan, in the previous basic plan formulated in 2014, three years after East Japan Great Earthquake. The plan was revised in March 2025, adding lessons from Noto Peninsula Great Earthquake in 2024, indicating possibility of 298 deaths and 2.35 million destructions of houses.   Although 2014 plan could not fulfill the target of reducing deaths by 80 percent and...

Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization, Ryosei Akazawa, came back from the seventh meeting as the top negotiator on tariffs with the United States. Having discussed on the issue with U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, in Washington, D.C., Akazawa did not have a meeting with his counterpart, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. President Donald Trump indicated a possibility of terminating the bilateral negotiation, if both sides fail in reaching a deal. Akazawa stayed at the D.C. between June 26 th  and 30 th  this time. In the four-day visit, it was only Lutnick who had a meeting with Akazawa. “I will continue the discussion in a vigorous and sincere manner to achieve an agreement which will be beneficial for both Japan and the United States,” said Akazawa in his press conference in Tokyo after his trip to Washington.   Trump’s tariff on imported cars took effect in April. According to data of Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Japan  exporte...

Having the Upper House election within a month ahead, a national conference of the leaders of business and academics held a discussion of party leaders in Tokyo on June 29 th . Both heads of ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ)   dismissed  possibility of having a grand coalition with each other, raising their difference on basic policies. It is likely that the current style of Japanese politics, in which the parties formulate partial cooperation on specific policy, will be maintained under the circumstance of minority government in the Lower House.   The conference is commonly known as ReIWA, an abbreviation of Reinventing Infrastructure of Wisdom and Action. ReIWA is organized in June 2022 by about one hundred members from business sectors, labor unions and scholars to make proposals to the politics. The conference issued policy packages on social security system, fiscal reform or management of political funds, up...